Rodrigo Paz Won Bolivia’s Presidency. What Now?

Bolivians went to the polls again on Sunday, but if you thought the election would deliver clarity, you must be new here.

After nearly two decades of socialist rule under Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) – most of them under the mercurial Evo Morales – Bolivia’s politics are still shaped by old loyalties and quiet deals. Real authority is exercised by power brokers who never really leave — they just move around. That’s why many Bolivians met Rodrigo Paz’s victory not with cheers, but with caution.

Paz is a centrist with an optimistic surname and a first-rate pedigree. Think of him as a Bolivian Kennedy, or a Latin Bush. His grandfather, father, uncle have all been in politics. He’s fluent in the language of moderation: unity without revenge, capitalism but with compassion. His campaign promised “capitalism for all,” and he won. That much is clear. But now he carries the burden of proving to a deeply skeptical Bolivia that he’s not just Evo Morales with a nicer haircut.

But in Bolivia, elections only answer one question: who’s in the chair, not who’s really running the show.

While many outside the country — including Washington — cheered the Paz victory, most Bolivians stayed quiet on election night, many unsure whether to cheer or brace for impact. My social media and family WhatsApp groups were full of shrugs and skepticism. “Más de lo mismo,” many said. More of the same. They’ve seen too many leaders promise change and fail to deliver.

The country voted for something different. But will Paz prove to be a different saddle? It is too early to tell. Soon, however, there will be signs.

Back in the Cold War, CIA analysts used to study grainy photos of Soviet May Day parades to figure out who held power based on who stood closest to Stalin or Khruschev. Who was smiling? Who was missing? In opaque systems, the little things aren’t little. They’re all you’ve got to go on, but they often serve as forecasts of what’s to come. Bolivia in 2025 isn’t the Soviet Union. But it’s still a place where power hides behind polite words like “reconciliation” and “governability.” Those terms can mean reform. They can also mean deals, debt, and silence.

Rodrigo Paz says he’ll be different. He’s promised not to run for re-election — a novelty in a country where clinging to power is a national sport. Evo Morales, on the other hand, rewrote the constitution, ignored term limits, held a referendum, lost it, and then ran again anyway.

Paz says he’ll be a one-term president. It will take nearly five years to know if he’s telling the truth. But far earlier than that, there will be some key signs of the direction he intends to go. Here’s what we’ll be watching in the first 100 days:

First, who gets freed? Political prisoners aren’t a myth in Bolivia. Will Paz release those hundreds jailed under MAS’s lawfare machine? Will he allow trials for past abuses, or sweep it all under the rug in the name of national unity? Real change starts with justice and accountability.

Second, does Evo get louder or go quiet? Morales remains Bolivia’s loudest political ghost. His influence will not just vanish. Morales sat out the first round, then nudged support toward Paz in the runoff. That help comes with strings. If Evo launches a barrage of criticism, Paz may be charting his own path, which Evo will not like. If Evo stays silent, maybe he’s cutting deals in the dark. Either way, Morales is still very much in the room.

Third, does the DEA return? Evo Morales kicked out the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) in 2008 and spent the next decade blaming the United States for Bolivia’s problems while Chapare, a part of our Bolivian jungle, turned into a narco-hub. Paz says he wants to work with the U.S. again. That’s a loud message. If Paz is serious about the rule of law, cooperation with international anti-narcotics agencies will be a loud first step.

Fourth, who gets hired — and who disappears? Forget speeches. We must study the lineup. Look at appointments. Cabinet picks, prosecutors, mid-level bureaucrats — these are the bones of the state. New faces = new direction. Old faces in better-fitting suits? That’s just MAS 2.0.

Does the judiciary change — or just rebrand? MAS stuffed the courts with loyalists. If the logos change but the loyalties don’t, expect the same old impunity for the elites. But if important legal positions start turning over, and prosecutors begin acting without political pressure, that’s reform happening.

Finally: what happens to the economy? Paz campaigned on “capitalism for all.” Will foreign investment return? Will legal certainty be restored? Will private enterprise stop being criminalized? Or will the old MAS model of state control, rent-seeking, endemic corruption and handouts just get a makeover?

Rodrigo Paz is not Evo Morales. That much is clear. But what remains unclear is whether Bolivia has broken with masismo or just absorbed it into something more palatable to gullible investors.

For the United States, this is a moment filled with uncertainty – and with promise. After two decades of anti-American rhetoric, Bolivia’s new government is promising a reset. Lithium, trade, security cooperation — the door is cracked open. Washington should walk through it.

Lift the 15% tariffs. Send an ambassador with real backing. Support IMF reforms that stabilize the economy and rebuild the rule of law. Don’t lecture — engage. And don’t wait. Latin America is shifting: Milei in Argentina, Noboa in Ecuador, elections coming in Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Honduras. The realignment is happening. Bolivia is part of it.

The moment demands action — but not blind optimism. Watch the appointments. Watch the courts. Watch what power is used for — and what it’s not. Rodrigo Paz says he’ll be different. We’ll know soon enough.