U.S. Action in Iran Should Prevent Regime’s Return

Earlier this week, President Trump was reportedly briefed on the suite of responses to the Iranian regime crackdown on protesters, and on January 12 posted on Truth Social that “help is on its way.” He has called off meetings with regime officials seeking a negotiated approach, announced 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran, as the State Department instructed Americans to leave the country.

Although Iran has faced waves of demonstrations over the years, the current one could determine the regime’s fate.

It is not enough for the United States to help the Iranian people seek the overthrow of the regime, which President Trump has advocated in recent weeks. Rather, the objective of U.S. military action should be to prevent any reemergence of the regime’s remnants.

The potential for regime change is real. The regime is certainly at its weakest point following Israel’s two-year military campaign against it and its proxies, and the historic military operations by the United States and Israel against its nuclear and ballistic arsenals.

But there does not appear to be a cohesive opposition, much less one in a position to govern. Although Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has been saying and doing the right things, he will be met with opposition among those protesters who are skeptical of the democratic bona fides of an heir to the Pahlavi dynasty. In the event of regime collapse, the best organized opposition to Pahlavi will likely be the remnants of the regime, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). And their return would usher in a far more brutal period for the country.

The focus then is not only ensuring regime change. It is preventing the current regime’s return.

To avert the latter scenario, what the protesters need more than anything from the world therefore is time. The United States can provide that to them by acting quickly and precisely by targeting the key elements of Iran’s political and military leadership structure.

This course of action – to which Israel would likely contribute – mirrors not only Israel’s playbook in going after the regime and its proxies (notably Hezbollah), but is consistent with the administration’s approach to other Islamist terror organizations. Indeed, on the very day the U.S. was holding preliminary discussions about actions in Iran it carried out dozens of strikes (along with regional partners) against ISIS terrorists in Syria.

The 2025 National Security Strategy describes the Iranian regime as “the region’s chief destabilizing force.” There is no reason to assume that simply because the regime is on its way out in Iran that it will cease its activities across the region or even in our backyard. On January 6, it was reported that the Iranian regime was plotting to assassinate Syria’s president Ahmad al-Sharaa. Just a month before the current protests began, an Iranian plot to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to Mexico was thwarted.

These examples suggest that even if removed from power the regime will likely escalate its threats around the world as it seeks to return to power. Although greatly diminished in leadership and capabilities, its proxies are still active throughout the world. The Islamic Republic is not only a form of governance but is also the world’s oldest global Islamist terror organization. Even without a state it can pursue its terror activities.

This means that a targeted campaign to eliminate the regime’s military and political command and control structure will also pay dividends for the U.S.’s regional and global priorities. Putin will run out of military technology to continue his war machine in Ukraine. Xi will lose a key diplomatic and economic foothold in the Middle East. Venezuela and Cuba will lose a key provider of energy and military infrastructure.

The U.S. has an opportunity to act geopolitically in Iran. This means not only looking to the success of the current wave of protests, but to preventing the worst case scenario – which, at the moment, is the most likely one: a more ruthless and unrestrained regime.

Working with our partners to take terrorists off the battlefield is something the United States has refined, and is currently doing in other parts of the region. During the first term President Trump eliminated two of the world’s top terror masterminds, including Iran’s chief architect of terror Qasem Soleimani.

Doing so today at multiple levels of Iran’s leadership will not only help the Iranian people. Next to Operation Midnight Hammer, it will be the most important step to making the world safer.

Jacob Olidort, Ph.D., is Chief Research Officer of the America First Policy Institute and Director of its American Security program.