Confronting the North Korean Nuclear Threat and Stability in the Indo-Pacific

Jun 23, 2026, 10:00AM

The America First Policy Institute welcomed policymakers, national security experts, congressional leaders, and foreign policy professionals about Confronting the North Korean Nuclear Threat and Stability in the Indo-Pacific, a discussion marking the release of Fred Fleitz's latest book, which examines the history, failures, and future of U.S. policy toward North Korea.

Hosted by Stacey Schieffelin, AFPI Chief External Affairs Officer, the event explored one of the most significant security challenges facing the United States and its allies. Drawing lessons from decades of failed efforts to stop North Korea's nuclear program, the discussion emphasized why the United States must prevent Iran from following the same path and why President Trump's decision to act before Iran's nuclear program advanced further reflected that lesson. The event examined how America First policies can strengthen deterrence, diplomacy, and stability throughout the Indo-Pacific.

A GROWING SECURITY CHALLENGE

Introducing the discussion, Schieffelin emphasized AFPI's commitment to developing practical America First solutions across national security, economic growth, border security, education, and foreign policy.

She highlighted the importance of confronting North Korea's expanding nuclear capabilities while recognizing the broader implications for regional stability and American leadership.

"Today's event reflects our mission by bringing together experienced leaders to discuss one of the most pressing national security challenges facing the United States and our allies."

LESSONS FROM DECADES OF FAILED POLICY

Fred Fleitz, Vice Chair of AFPI's Center for American Security and former Deputy Assistant to President Donald J. Trump, explained that the history of North Korea's nuclear program offers an important lesson for today's policymakers.

Fleitz argued that decades of diplomatic delays, inconsistent enforcement, and failed negotiations allowed North Korea to become a nuclear-armed state. That experience, he said, demonstrates why the United States cannot afford to repeat the same mistakes with Iran.

According to Fleitz, President Trump's decision to act before Iran's nuclear program progressed beyond the point of effective intervention reflected the central lesson of North Korea: once a hostile regime successfully develops a mature nuclear weapons capability, the available policy options become significantly more limited.

The discussion highlighted several key lessons:

• Decades of negotiations failed to stop North Korea's nuclear ambitions.
• Political pressure for short-term diplomatic successes often undermined long-term security objectives.
• Delayed action allowed North Korea to become a de facto nuclear power.
• The North Korean experience underscores the importance of preventing Iran from reaching the same point.
• Preventing nuclear proliferation requires acting before adversaries cross the point where diplomacy alone is no longer sufficient.

"The question is how did this happen? How did U.S. policymakers allow this program to advance so far that we can't easily reverse it?"

MAXIMUM PRESSURE AND PRESIDENT TRUMP'S APPROACH

Moderated by Piero Tozzi, AFPI Senior Director for China Policy, the conversation examined how President Trump's approach differed from previous administrations.

Fleitz argued that the Trump Administration combined:

• Maximum economic and diplomatic pressure
• Strong military deterrence
• Direct leader-to-leader diplomacy
• Willingness to depart from traditional diplomatic models

Rather than relying on multilateral negotiations that allowed China to shape outcomes, the Administration pursued direct engagement with Kim Jong Un while maintaining pressure through sanctions and military readiness.

According to Fleitz, the strategy contributed to:

• The suspension of North Korean nuclear testing after 2017
• A pause in long-range missile launches during the Trump Administration
• Reduced military tensions on the Korean Peninsula
• Historic direct engagement between American and North Korean leadership

The discussion also noted that the broader lesson extends beyond North Korea. Fleitz argued that preventing adversaries from acquiring nuclear weapons requires decisive leadership before threats become irreversible—a principle he said informed President Trump's approach toward Iran.

CHINA'S ROLE IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

The discussion also examined China's growing influence over North Korea and broader regional security.

Tozzi noted that while China and North Korea cooperate strategically, their relationship remains driven by competing interests rather than complete alignment.

Panelists discussed:

• China's effort to maintain influence over Pyongyang
• Russia's growing partnership with North Korea
• The implications of North Korean military support for Russia's war in Ukraine
• The importance of preventing China from controlling future negotiations

The conversation emphasized that any long-term strategy toward North Korea must account for broader geopolitical competition throughout the Indo-Pacific.

STRENGTHENING AMERICA'S ALLIANCES

Another major focus centered on America's relationships with South Korea and Japan.

Fleitz praised growing trilateral cooperation among the United States, South Korea, and Japan, highlighting:

• Expanded intelligence sharing
• Joint military exercises
• Enhanced regional deterrence
• Increased investment in allied defense capabilities

The discussion also explored concerns surrounding nuclear proliferation and whether growing North Korean capabilities could eventually lead regional allies to reconsider their own nuclear deterrence strategies.

"Members of our alliances have to take more responsibility for their own security."

THE IMPORTANCE OF REALISTIC DIPLOMACY

During an extended audience question-and-answer session, participants explored lessons from previous negotiations, including the Six-Party Talks, the Singapore Summit, and the Hanoi Summit.

Key themes included:

• Learning from past diplomatic failures
• Maintaining denuclearization as the ultimate objective
• Entering future negotiations without unnecessary preconditions
• Balancing diplomacy with credible military deterrence
• Addressing North Korea's growing cooperation with Russia

Fleitz argued that future diplomacy must be grounded in realistic assessments of North Korea's capabilities while avoiding the policy mistakes of previous administrations.

POLICY LESSONS FOR THE FUTURE

Throughout the discussion, Fleitz emphasized that understanding the history of North Korea's nuclear program is essential for shaping future American policy.

Among the central lessons:

• Diplomatic agreements must be backed by verification and enforcement.
• Intelligence assessments must remain objective and independent.
• American strength remains the foundation of successful negotiations.
• Stable Indo-Pacific security requires close cooperation with regional allies.
• Policymakers should learn from past failures rather than repeat them.
• The United States must act before hostile regimes acquire irreversible nuclear capabilities, whether in North Korea, Iran, or elsewhere.

"If we act now, we can prevent threats like this from rising."

LOOKING AHEAD

The discussion concluded with a clear message: the history of North Korea's nuclear program offers more than a retrospective; it provides a roadmap for avoiding future strategic failures.

For Fleitz, the central lesson is that once a rogue regime successfully develops a nuclear weapons capability, the costs, risks, and policy options change dramatically. North Korea stands as a reminder of what can happen when diplomacy fails to stop nuclear proliferation in time.

That lesson, Fleitz argued, informed President Trump's decision to prevent Iran's nuclear program from advancing before it reached the point where it could no longer be effectively contained. Rather than allowing another adversary to follow North Korea's trajectory, the discussion emphasized the importance of acting decisively to preserve American security and strengthen deterrence.

As North Korea continues expanding its nuclear and missile capabilities while deepening ties with Russia and China, AFPI's Center for American Security will continue advancing America First policies that promote peace through strength, reinforce America's alliances, and confront emerging threats before they become irreversible.

"Success may hinge on making progress in other global conflicts—but there remains an opportunity for diplomacy backed by strength."