Project Vault: Locking in America’s Strategic Supply
This commentary was co-authored by Ethan Antonelli
On February 2, 2026, President Trump, along with Chairman of the Export-Import Bank (EXIM) John Jovanovic, announced a new initiative to move U.S. critical mineral supply chains away from reliance on China. Project Vault establishes the U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve intended to store critical minerals essential to America’s defense and industrial supply chains in facilities across the United States. For the defense sector, these minerals are essential for technologies such as the radars in the F-35 and Virginia-class submarines, Tomahawk cruise missiles, and predator drones, and with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), their role will only continue to grow.
From day one, President Trump has made it clear; economic security is national security. In March 2025, the President signed the Executive Order 14241 “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production,” which sought to accelerate the mining permitting process for the purposes of increasing domestic mining and building reliable supply chains. Following this announcement, in October 2025, the United States secured over $10 billion in critical minerals deal from five different countries (Australia, Cambodia, Japan, Malaysia and Thailand).
These actions come against the backdrop of U.S. trade negotiations with China, where supply chains for critical resources are a key focus. In October, China, which refines over 90% of global critical minerals, announced export controls on critical minerals bound for the United States. This escalation revealed a dark reality for the American economy, its reliance on Chinese minerals refineries. Today, market demand for these minerals remains high, but reliable suppliers remain scarce because all conveyor belts lead to Beijing.
Beijing’s ability to undercut U.S. defense supply chains is becoming more problematic. With the Department of War (DOW) pivoting to a focus on laser technologies, which require rare earth elements for production, there is an increased need for the U.S. defense sector to diversify its supply chains. Project Vault further complements existing efforts such as the National Defense Stockpile (NDS), but even this initiative faces scarcity issues, with a 2023 report noting that the NDS contained only $1.3 billion in total assets, with a lesser $912.3 million in stockpiled materials.
President Trump is tackling this problem head-on. In addition to trade deals with our allies, Project Vault aims to ensure that the United States never faces a shortage of critical minerals vital to economic life; Project Vault directly addresses this by bolstering defense supply chains and helping to advance economic prosperity.
From 2020-2023, China accounted for over 70% of the United States rare earth imports.[1] Project Vault directly addresses this strategic vulnerability and national security threat. Recent research from AFPI has showcased the gravity of these dependencies, noting that with a sclerotic domestic permitting process for mining, there is a need to expand relationships with other countries and store critical minerals domestically.
Financed with a $10 billion direct loan from EXIM, the project will also receive up to $2 billion in private investment. Under its structure, direct U.S.– on–U.S. competition for minerals no longer becomes a major issue. Major defense and industrial firms pool their demand through fixed-price contracts and upfront fees, removing the need for a bidding war. Under these rules, the mindset of the United States’ manufacturing base can continue to shift towards an approach that encourages collaboration between the private sector and the government.
Project Vault not only advances critical mineral initiatives outlined in the President’s National Security Strategy but also underscores the unstable nature of America’s current mineral trade deficit. The reserve encourages global partners to adopt trade policies that will help rebalance China’s control of the market. Alongside adopting new strategies, Project Vault should encourage the private sector to invest in markets that have been traditionally monopolized by the Chinese, namely those in the Great Lakes Region of Africa and Central Asia. Alongside adopting new strategies, Project Vault should encourage the private sector to invest in markets traditionally monopolized by China, namely those in the Great Lakes Region of Africa and Central Asia. These regions contain large, undeveloped deposits that have been a key focus of the administration’s peace frameworks for the conflicts between DRC and Rwanda and Armenia and Azerbaijan.
While the announcement is monumental, it should be viewed as a steppingstone in the long game of restoring American dominance in the critical minerals field. Next steps could include finding new avenues for government and private sector collaboration, using American diplomatic power to end conflicts overseas, allowing U.S. access to supply chains, and restoring permitting laws from the first Trump Administration that were reversed during the Biden Administration.
Further information on how and where minerals will be stored, the private companies contributing to the $2 billion investment, and oversight mechanisms will be released later, but the announcement of Project Vault is a critical step in the U.S. effort to retain its economic and military prowess.
Footnote:
[1] Rare earth elements are a list of 17 critical minerals that have received a special designation because they are essential to economic and national security and lack known substitutes.