Spotlight on Demographic Identity in Western Europe

TRANSCRIPT OF AFPI’S FOURTH INTERVIEW IN THE “CIVILIZATIONAL ALLIES” SERIES

This conversation, hosted by Director of Civilizational Action Kristen Ziccarelli, is part of America First Policy Institute’s Civilizational Allies Interview Series and features Gudrun Kugler, Member of the Austrian Parliament, lawyer, and theologian, vice-president of the parliamentary assembly of the OSCE, mother of four teenagers. Against the backdrop of profound demographic, cultural, and political shifts affecting both Europe and the United States, the discussion explores the shared civilizational challenges confronting the Western world.

The focus is on examining questions of national identity, mass migration, demographic decline, economic competitiveness, and the moral foundations necessary for democratic governance. Drawing on Kugler’s experience in European politics and international institutions, the conversation offers insight into Austria’s response to these pressures and highlights the importance of transatlantic cooperation rooted in shared Western values and responsible leadership.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

Gudrun, thank you so much for taking the time. You are widely known and heavily respected in Europe, and it is a great honor to have you in D.C. to share more about your thoughts on policy solutions for issues like demography, immigration, etc. I know you have thoughts on what ‘America First’ means to European ears, and what you see as the reaction to the phrase in Europe. Can you start us off by telling me about that?

GUDRUN KUGLER:

Of course, Kristen, thanks for having me. The name “America First” is difficult for the Europeans, and also for the Christians. I would say my probably preferred slogan would be “human dignity and justice” first.

But I do agree of course that the well-being of the nation is the first task of each leader of a nation. In the previous years, or decades, we have not focused enough on this. That is something that we also see strongly in Europe. Very often, I see Americans roll their eyes when they hear about Europe. But I also see Europeans roll their eyes when they hear about America. This is not helpful for our common civilization within one Western world. Upholding Western values is not just a geographical desirability, but necessary for both our continents. There's a beautiful description of the three hills that built Western civilization: Athens, Rome and Jerusalem; Athens for Greek philosophy and democracy, Rome for the rule of law, and Jerusalem for the Judeo-Christian vision of the human person. You take these three together, you get a unique mixture of what it means to be Western. From this, we deduce our main guiding principles of what is Western culture, convictions we share equally. Geopolitically, as so much is in movement right now, it is very important that we stick together as Westerners.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

I agree. The need for civilizational allies has been a part of U.S. policy towards Europe this year and it is inspiring a lot of good conversations, some of which are difficult at the onset, but need to happen in order to strengthen us.

You wear many different hats in Europe covering both politics, theology, demography, among others. So, can you tell me how you view the state of the West right now, particularly Europe?

GUDRUN KUGLER:

Europe is going through an identity crisis. The loss of shared cultural foundations and of trust in our institutions, radical individualism, the weakening of family and community paired with moral relativism and secularization, historical trauma especially because of the 20th century and a feeling of historical guilt – just to name a few causes - have led to us not knowing who we are or who we ought to be. That leads to many problems, for instance, mass migration and immigrants who don't know into what to integrate, as the native population is not displaying any self-confidence. Partly, people not to have children because they do not believe in the future. And we are struggling with our competitiveness, because of over-bureaucratization and very high taxes. There is a corporate exodus. Europe is dependent on foreign products in various areas. We are doing well on services and are still very good at innovation, but our position on the the global market is weakening. We are not in a good position to defend ourselves either.

We need a lot of political courage, political will and strength to make the changes it needs.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

The demographic crisis is a key point, one that I don’t think the significance can be understated. If I’m not mistaken, nearly all European countries are at birth rates below replacement, and the desires to have families, especially large ones, don’t seem to be very common anymore. Can you talk more about that?

GUDRUN KUGLER:

European birthrates have been below replacement since 1970, in the US this is the case only since 2008. The first Western European countries are currently beginning to shrink, for example Germany. So far the human deficit was filled with immigrants, which brings other problems with it.

Eastern European countries who see emmigration to the West have already been experiencing shrinkage for a while. My country, Austria, is set to start shrinkage in 2040. Our social systems are not ready for it –pension, health, welfare – the labour market as well rural infrastructure are not prepared. In a democratic system, it is a temptation to only think about the next election - or the next headline. Instead, we need to prepare for the next generations and for our civilization to thrive also in the long-term.

The European average is 1.38, America currently is at 1.6. Both numbers include immigrants giving birth. In Austria, the birth rate is 1.3 but without immigration, the birth rate is estimated to be below 1. That means that we virtually lose a half a generation every generation and four grandparents share one grandchild.

It will be difficult for the state to afford retirement of an increasing amount of pensioners, who also have high health expenditures. We face an epidemic of loneliness and a shortage of caretakers for the elderly. The baby boomers are now only beginning to retire. While we know quite exactly how the numbers will development, our response does currently not adequately live up to the size of the problem.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

Do you see the demographic crisis having any relationship to what you mentioned earlier about the West’s identity crisis?

GUDRUN KUGLER:

Most likely. Why do we not have a birth rate above replacement? First: it's not family size that is the problem, but a sevenfolg increase in childlessness. Why do people not have children? One third of the people say they don't want any. Their worries are climate change, scarcity and doom; and people who believe there is no purpose or meaning in life. They ask, “why would I bring a kid into a world with growing CO2 emissions?”

Then there are two thirds of people who say that they want children – but “not yet” or “not now”. That's a lifestyle issue. Sadly, for many the “not yet” turns into an “unfortunately, never.” This is something we can actively work to change. Many people are still unaware of how sharply fertility declines after thirty. We need to create a more positive and encouraging portrayal of parenthood in public discourse. Parenthood should be associated with status and social recognition. At the moment, our society does not do a very good job of this.

You asked about identity. We have to know who we are and be proud of it - not in a derogative sense to others, but just to say gratefully, ‘this is beautiful.’ Then they have children to multiply the beauty that they received. For a child to be born in Europe or the United States is like winning the lottery. In contrast, the narrative is that everything is terrible, including our history, our Western principles - but that’s just not true. I think it's sometimes good to remind ourselves that we have many reasons to be joyful, grateful and appreciative of the incredible things and all the wonders our society has created.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

Interesting, and well said about the need to be joyful in a world so fraught with negativity. We need positive role models. Do you feel like you are one of the few people in like a very high position in politics and public life that has a family and is very outspoken about it?

GUDRUN KUGLER:

I'm a mom of four teenagers. They grounds me and while it's sometimes difficult to get everything done, it’s beautiful and meaningful to have children. This is what life is about.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

I've seen very different responses among even the right in Europe to the demographic crisis. Some of the problem certainly is cultural and spiritual, and everyone has a role to play in amending it. But maybe there's also some policy solutions in education, like civic education or even like government economic policy to make it financially easier to raise children. In your view, what is the main role of policymakers in reversing this?

GUDRUN KUGLER:

Raising awareness of the demographic crisis is a major part of my work at the OSCE. We have developed a set of recommendations on how to address this challenge, and I succeeded in having a unanimous resolution adopted within the OSCE that incorporates them.

Within the EPP (the European People’s Party), I have also drafted a multi-level policy framework that could be implemented across institutions. Demographic change must become a top-tier priority. This includes stopping irregular migration but providing ways of legal and structured migration — for example through mobility agreements with countries whose people could integrate well into our societies. At the same time, we must prepare our pension, welfare, and healthcare systems for demographic shrinkage, and adapt rural and regional development strategies accordingly. Productivity can be increased through strategic use of AI, expanded access to free higher education, and continuous skills development.

We also need to extend working lives. That means working longer on the one hand, as well as shortening education pathways so people can enter the workforce earlier on the other hand. We must invest in longevity so that people age in good health, remain independent for longer, and can participate in the labor market well into later life.

But demographic sustainability is not only an economic issue. It also requires social and cultural policies that enable people to be healthy, fulfilled, and confident about forming families. Raising the birth rate cannot rely on family policy alone. We also need a more positive public image of parenthood — one that recognizes it as meaningful, valued, and socially respected.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

You are one of the few I've spoken with that has acknowledged that we have both a serious economic crisis and a cultural crisis of identity that is responsible for the demographic decline. It is very encouraging to hear you say because I agree with you – it is not just one or the other. Unless you want to add anything, let’s talk more about economics.

GUDRUN KUGLER:

I’d like to add that there are several people in the leadership in the U.S. who focus on working mainly with the European far right. However, it is important to also work with the center right, which is part of the global party family the Republicans participate in. Unlike America, in Europe there will always be coalitions formed involving compromises and agreements between several parties, in the future I suppose frequently center right and far right parties. We have a beautiful German saying that says ‘jump over your own shadow,’ meaning that we must leave behind some sensitivities and find a compromise. It is important to work with the final governing body as a whole and not to give up on the center right party families.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

Yes, it is. What do you make of the cordon sanitaire that has been imposed on the far right in several nations in Europe?

GUDRUN KUGLER:

Not every country follows this left and undemocratic narrative, Austria for instance, does not. I think that there's an expiration date to these artificial separations, and they will change soon. In doing so, we must always uphold human dignity, no matter where someone is from, hold firmly onto the rule of law, and always turn to and strengthen the Western world. But it is wrong to condemn certain party families as a whole, and – especially in the light of the multitude of challenges, we should seek to work together on feasible solutions. In the end, the Western world will win, even on bumpy roads, because it seeks to create free and just societies.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

I remember when we met in Vienna, you also spoke about this need to influence, and even to work among those you do not align with perfectly and have the hard conversations instead of just staying in your own camp. This is an attitude and an approach I think is very much missing in a lot of politics, including in America as well. People don't consider creative ways to use their existing leverage to reach out and move other parties from within.

GUDRUN KUGLER:

Often, politicians demonize their opponents during elections, and come to believe the demons they painted themselves. Christian groups sometimes think that the far right are the new Christian parties. But frequently, I notice there a political rightwing paganism, which I find a bit scary. When we talk about respecting human dignity for example, its extends to every human being – also old people, handicapped or unproductive people.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

Right, it’s the values that we know that we were founded on as a civilization. I see movements in Europe that are very strong on the need for sovereignty in the nation and the borders, and economics maybe, but not all of them explicitly acknowledge a need for reviving the values that made us a great Western world in the first place.

GUDRUN KUGLER:

Exactly. The weaker the industry in Europe gets because of bureaucracy and high taxes, the stronger other players get. We are very concerned, for example, about Chinese activities and about the human rights situation in China. Again, it is important that the Western world stands united.

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

Agreed. Thank you for adding that.

I wanted to close with the quote that I pulled from your Hillsdale lecture last time you were visiting D.C., and then I just want you to maybe expand on it a bit.

You said, “Power corrupts, but not always and it does not have to corrupt you. It needs a few people of light that are not corruptible. Politics needs more than anything virtuous people, virtuous politicians. It also needs a virtuous electorate, otherwise democracy does not work. Democracy without virtues is not possible.”

Can you talk more about this? It is very encouraging!

GUDRUN KUGLER:

Yes. Christians especially seem to be afraid of entering politics because they think that it will corrupt them. The reality is that anything can corrupt you, but nothing has to corrupt you.

Bishop Robert Barron often cites Aquinas’s characterizations of the four great temptations: power, pleasure, wealth and glory. In any job, these things can target and corrupt you. But you can choose to walk on the right path, and politics needs more people who do that.

When we consider responding to the challenges of demographic change, it is obvious that we cannot solve this within one electoral cycle, and that politicians are forced to think far enough ahead and implement unpopular measures. People say that politicians are not ready for that – and we might therefore need autocratic regimes to get this done.

I don't think so. Autocracy brings many dangers with it and it suffocates people. The solution lies in virtuous politicians who do not think mainly about their own re-election, but that their policies make sense and solve the crises they face.

If the voice of Christians is missing in politics, someone else will take that space. Sometimes Christians say, ‘I cannot join a political party because not everything is perfect.’ I tell them that the reasons to join a party are strategic ones. Within a party you seek to change it for the better from within – that is a very high moral goal to achieve. A German bishop once said: “Punish the party by joining it, not by leaving it.”

KRISTEN ZICCARELLI:

Excellent, thank you for speaking about all things policy and leadership. It is heartening to know we have friends on the other side of the ocean practicing Christian leadership and working courageously to preserve the values that bind our civilization together. Your work ethic, seriousness, and hope for the future are an encouragement to many of us here in the United States who are grappling with similar challenges. Thank you for your time and your insights.

GUDRUN KUGLER:

Thank you, Kristen, I appreciate the opportunity and am grateful for your work and for this platform to strengthen our transatlantic partnership.