OHIO’S 1ST DISTRICT: THE COMEBACK AT A GLANCE

August 21, 2026
$1,900

AVERAGE WORKING FAMILIES TAX CUTS FOR JOINT FILERS WITH AT LEAST 2 CHILDREN, TAX YEAR 2025 — OHIO STATEWIDE AVERAGE, NOT A DISTRICT ESTIMATE

48 million

BARRELS OF OIL FROM THE HORIZONTAL WELLS OF OHIO'S UTICA SHALE IN 2025 — A STATE RECORD, UP 39% IN ONE YEAR (EASTERN OHIO'S APPALACHIAN COUNTIES, EAST OF THIS DISTRICT)

At least 165,000

OHIO STUDENTS USING STATE-FUNDED SCHOLARSHIPS TO ATTEND PRIVATE SCHOOLS (STATEWIDE TOTAL, AS REPORTED IN 2026)

~35%

DROP IN OHIO STATEWIDE OVERDOSE DEATHS IN 2024 — AMONG THE LARGEST DECLINES IN THE NATION (PROVISIONAL CDC DATA, AS REPORTED BY AXIOS)

The district: the city of Cincinnati, dozens of other Hamilton County communities, and all of Warren County — on current boundaries; a new map adopted October 31, 2025 takes effect with the 2026 elections, so figures on today's boundaries will shift. Median household income was $82,099 in 2024, about 14% above Ohio's $72,212; the median owner-occupied home was worth $336,300, below the $360,600 national median.
1
THE ECONOMY: TAX CUTS LAND AS CINCINNATI'S JOB MARKET TIGHTENS
  • Cincinnati metro unemployment hit 3.5% in June 2026, down from 4.4% a year earlier.
  • That is the second-lowest rate among Ohio metros reporting June data, behind Columbus only.
  • Ohio's economy crossed a $1 trillion annual rate, in current dollars, for the first time in the first quarter of 2026.
  • GE Aerospace is directing more than $115 million into Cincinnati-region operations in 2026.
  • The roughly $4 billion Brent Spence Bridge Corridor rebuild broke ground May 8, 2026.

GE Aerospace is headquartered in Evendale, inside the district; the regional total also covers company sites in West Chester and Peebles, outside the district. Its Ohio total tops $160 million and it plans 5,000 U.S. hires in 2026. More than $1 billion in freight moves through the Brent Spence corridor every day. Labor market data as of June 2026.

2
ENERGY: A STATE OIL RECORD, AND NUCLEAR PLANTS ADDING CAPACITY
  • Utica Shale horizontal wells produced more than 48 million barrels of oil in 2025.
  • Up 39% from 34.5 million barrels in 2024 and nearly triple 2021 output.
  • January 2026 agreements cover 2,176 MW at two northern Ohio nuclear plants, which today support more than 1,200 jobs.
  • Southern Ohio's Portsmouth site: a planned 10 gigawatts of new generation, expected to support more than 10,000 construction jobs.
  • Duke Energy Ohio/Kentucky served about 880,000 electric customers as of 2022.

The Utica's horizontal wells sit in Ohio's Appalachian counties, well east of this district; natural gas production held just over 2 trillion cubic feet. Duke Energy Ohio, headquartered in Cincinnati, delivers electricity and natural gas across the district; Duke Energy Ohio/Kentucky also served about 550,000 natural gas customers as of 2022, and $1.4 billion was invested across southwest Ohio over the preceding decade.

3
EDUCATION: UNIVERSAL SCHOLARSHIPS, AND A CINCINNATI SUBURB LEADING THE STATE
  • More than 165,000 Ohio students use state-funded scholarships to attend private schools.
  • EdChoice Expansion is open statewide, outside the separate Cleveland Scholarship program, with no cap; 100,922 students participated in 2024–25.
  • In the first year every Ohio family became scholarship-eligible, a Cincinnati-suburb district topped the State with more than 2,000 EdChoice Expansion participants.
  • Ohio opted in to a new federal tax credit of up to $1,700 for donations to scholarship-granting organizations, from 2027.

Full EdChoice Expansion awards are $6,166 (K–8) or $8,408 (grades 9–12) below 450% of the federal poverty level. Ohio also has 339 public charter (community) schools serving almost 120,000 students, nearly 180,000 private-school students, and more than 60,000 homeschoolers; 88% of Ohio students graduate in four years, and the same analysis flags declining reading scores.

4
SAFER COMMUNITIES: HAMILTON COUNTY OVERDOSE DEATHS AT THEIR LOWEST SINCE 2012
  • Hamilton County overdose deaths fell 30% in 2025, to 194 from 277 in 2024.
  • That is a fourth consecutive annual decline and the lowest county total since 2012.
  • Cincinnati reported 23,424 crimes in 2025, down from 24,349; homicides 61 versus 65.
  • Southwest border apprehensions totaled 237,538 in FY2025, the lowest level since 1970.

The county decline began in 2022, and county officials credit years of local prevention, treatment, and quick-response work; the 2025 total is about a third of the county's 2017 peak of 570. Provisional Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data, as reported by Axios, show Ohio overdose deaths fell roughly 35% in 2024. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) reports 14 consecutive months of zero releases at the border. A March 2026 federal grand jury in the Southern District of Ohio charged six Chinese nationals and two Chinese pharmaceutical companies over fentanyl precursors and cutting agents; an indictment contains allegations only and the defendants are presumed innocent.

OHIO'S 1ST DISTRICT: AT A GLANCE
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS · AUGUST 2026
OHIO AND THE NATION, SIDE BY SIDE
OHIO
Unemployment rate, June 2026 3.6%
Average retail electricity price, 2024 11.29¢/kWh
Fourth-graders proficient in math, 2024 43%
Average filer's 2026 tax cut (Tax Foundation) $3,173
UNITED STATES
Unemployment rate, June 2026 4.2%
Average retail electricity price, 2024 12.94¢/kWh
Fourth-graders proficient in math, 2024 40%
Average filer's 2026 tax cut (Tax Foundation) $3,813

Ohio posted the largest over-the-year unemployment rate decline of any state, with 63,000 fewer Ohioans unemployed than in June 2025. Real GDP rose 2.8% over the year through the first quarter of 2026 and per capita personal income reached $67,291 in 2025, up 4.2% before inflation. Overall prices in Ohio ran about 7% below the national average in 2024, with rents about 27% lower and electricity about 13% less.

Exhibit sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis (real GDP, per capita personal income and the price and housing comparisons); Energy Information Administration; the 2024 Nation's Report Card (NAEP/NCES), as reported by the Thomas B. Fordham Institute; Tax Foundation. The 63,000 decline in unemployed Ohioans is derived from the seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics series and was reported by Business Journal Daily. Labor market data as of June 2026.

WHAT THE WORKING FAMILIES TAX CUTS DO
THE PROVISIONS
  • No tax on tips, up to $25,000
  • No tax on overtime, up to $12,500 ($25,000 joint)
  • $2,200 Child Tax Credit
  • New $6,000 senior deduction
  • Up to $10,000 car-loan interest deduction on U.S.-assembled vehicles
OFRA ESTIMATES — OHIO STATEWIDE AVERAGES, TAX YEAR 2025
Average Ohio filer $735
Households without children $625
Seniors 65 and older $1,054
Families with children $1,063

The Working Families Tax Cuts figures shown here are Ohio statewide averages covering the law's new worker-focused provisions — the tips, overtime, Child Tax Credit, senior-deduction and car-loan-interest items listed at left. That scope is the district profile's characterization, not language printed on the underlying OFRA tables. OFRA's published analysis for Ohio's 1st Congressional District prints the Ohio statewide values, so these are not district-specific estimates. The Tax Foundation separately estimates the average Ohio filer saves $3,173 in 2026 under the full law — which also counts permanence of the 2017 tax cuts and business provisions — versus $3,813 nationally.

THE DATA: EARLIER VS. LATEST, BY METRIC
METRIC EARLIER LATEST
Ohio unemployment rate 4.6%
June 2025 · 1 year
3.6%
June 2026
Cincinnati metro unemployment 4.4%
June 2025 · 1 year
3.5%
June 2026
Hamilton County overdose deaths 277
2024 · 1 year
194
2025
Cincinnati reported crimes 24,349
2024 · 1 year
23,424
2025
Ohio Utica horizontal-well oil production 34.5 million barrels
2024 · 1 year
48 million barrels
2025
Southwest border apprehensions ~1.6 million
FY2021 · 4 years
237,538
FY2025

Rows are labeled by period only. Each row carries its own earlier period and the span it covers; spans vary by metric. Labor market data as of June 2026.

Exhibit sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Hamilton County Coroner; Ohio Department of Natural Resources; House Committee on Homeland Security; local reporting for the Cincinnati crime totals.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Cincinnati-metro unemployment was 3.5% in June 2026, Ohio's economy crossed a $1 trillion annual rate (in current dollars) in the first quarter of 2026, and Hamilton County overdose deaths fell in 2025 to their lowest level since 2012. Ohio's Utica Shale set a state oil production record in 2025 in the Appalachian counties east of this district, and more than 165,000 Ohio students use state-funded scholarships. In the Cincinnati region, GE Aerospace is investing from its Evendale headquarters inside the district while a roughly $4 billion rebuild of the Brent Spence corridor is under way.

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